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Documented
NBA Handicapping Records:
2009/2010 NBA
Handicapping Records
ATS: 184-160-8
(56%)
Moneyline: 3-3
(+0.85 UNITS)
Totals: 64-66-6
(48%)
**TOTAL UNITS EARNED =
+7.50
NOTE: 1
UNIT = 6% BANKROLL. View our Rating
System for specifics.
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take a look below at some of our recent basketball
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and every selection.
Game 1: Raptors at Magic (Pick = Orlando Magic -7)
Game Preview: Game 1 between the Toronto Raptors and the Orlando Magic takes place on Sunday and thus far, 69% of the betting public favors the Magic. Orlando is currently 6.5-point favorites over Toronto.
Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh consider themselves friends, having played together for USA Basketball and on two All-Star teams. Neither has advanced in the playoffs, giving both something to prove when the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors open a best-of-seven playoff series on Sunday. The team that contains the other young All-Star will have a good chance of surviving.
Oddsmakers from Sportsbook.com have made Orlando 6.5 point spread favorites (NBA Odds) for todays game, the over/under has been set at 197 total points (Matchup). Our public betting information shows that 69% of bets for this game have been placed on Orlando 6.5 (View NBA Bet Percentages).
The pressure is probably more intense on Orlando's caped crusader. The Magic have home-court advantage for the first time since the strike-shortened 1999 season. They're hoping it will help them advance beyond the playoffs' first round for the first time since 1996, when Shaquille O'Neal took the team to the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando hasn't even won a playoff game since 2003, thanks to their four-game sweep at Detroit's hands after sneaking into the postseason last year. Another early exit would be crushing after the Magic improved 12 games over last season and won their first division title in a dozen years.
The teams are similarly built with perimeter shooters surrounding an inside star. Toronto ranked second (39.2 percent) and Orlando fourth (38.6 percent) in the league in 3-point shooting percentage, though the Magic took a lot more shots. Their 2,074 regular-season attempts trailed only Golden State, while Toronto's 1,459 attempts put it in the middle of the pack.
The Magic have made at least five 3s in all 82 games this season, shattering the NBA record of 51 consecutive games set by Phoenix in 2005. By another measure, 3-pointers averaged per game, Orlando had the second-best season in NBA history behind the same Phoenix team (9.77 a game, compared with the Suns' 10.21).
Three Raptors are in the league's top 11 in 3-point shooting percentage - Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker and Jose Calderon - and Kapono's 48.3 percent was best in the league. In Howard, Bosh will face one of the NBA's best inside players. The 22-year-old is averaging 20.7 points and a league-leading 14.2 rebounds.
His biggest weakness remains free throw shooting. Howard was better from the field (59.9 percent) than the line (59 percent). He has also been neutralized when he gets in early foul trouble, a strategy the Raptors seem sure to try.
The Magic worry about Toronto's pick-and-roll and haven't found an answer for Bosh. He has averaged 22.7 points in 13 career games against Orlando, more than any other team. The forward hung 40 points on the Magic on Feb. 20 in a 127-110 Raptors win, the team's highest offensive output of the season.
Magic coach Stan Van Gundy wouldn't say who he'd put on Bosh, a tough matchup for a team without a true power forward. Rashard Lewis slid into the position after Tony Battie's season-ending shoulder injury, but isn't Orlando's best defensive option. Howard had trouble when Bosh faced up on him in the team's second of three regular-season games, when the Raptors star scored 40.
Our Point: Both teams are wet behind the ears here going into the first game of the playoffs. They are both young and brimming with talented players that will look to make their name in the playoffs. But, 3 very important things favor Orlando in this game over the Raptors.
1) Momentum: Toronto finished the last two months of the regular season 9-17. Further, they were a terrible bet going 2-6 ATS their last 8 games. Orlando finished strong on the back of a Van Gundy tongue lashing that embarrassed his young team in front of the media who already has no respect for the Magic. Orlando closed the season out with a 4-1 SU run, going 4-1 ATS during that time span. The Magic have been a solid bet lately,
2) Something to Prove: The Magic also have a bit of a chip on their shoulders - the No. 3 seeded team is rarely mentioned as an Eastern Conference contender. Further, as mentioned above, they were doing a bit of costing up until about 4 games ago when their coach challenged them publicly, since then this is a whole new team.
3) Home Court Advantage: The Magic have been a pleasure to bet on at home this season going 24-16 ATS. Further, they are a whopping 18-7 ATS against the east on their home floor. Toronto has been a sub-par away team going 12-14 ATS on the road against the east, 18-23 ATS overall on the road, and 16-25 SU for all road games. In other words, the Raptors have not been a smart road play this season.
Look, in the opening game of the NBA Playoffs, in a matchup like this, you have to to take the team that has proved themselves at home and closed out the regular season strong. Orlando will step up today and look for Howard to have a huge game against Bosh. The Raptors will get off to a slow start here being shell shocked from all the glitz that comes with playing in the playoffs. While we expect them to ultimately shake off the rust, the Magic are going to own this game from start to finish. We would honestly take the Magic here even if they were favored by 10. This could end up being a double digit win for the home court guru's.
Take the Magic -7!
Game 2: Nuggets at Lakers (Pick = Lakers -8)
The betting public is all over the hot Los Angeles Lakers as they take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of their playoff series. Sixty-eight percent of bettors favor the Lakers -8.5 Sunday against the Nuggets.
The Lakers earned the top seed in the West by winning eight of their final nine games, giving them 57 victories. Five other teams in the West had at least 54 wins, and the Nuggets earned the eighth and final berth by winning 50 games for the first time in 20 years.
Oddsmakers from Sportsbook.com have made Los Angeles 8.5 point spread favorites (NBA Odds) for todays game, the over/under has been set at 224 total points (Matchup). Our public betting information shows that 68% of bets for this game have been placed on Los Angeles 8.5 (View NBA Bet Percentages). Bet this game.
Game 1 will be played Sunday at Staples Center, where the Lakers have a 15-2 record against the Nuggets since the arena opened in 1999. The second game will be played Wednesday night before the best-of-seven series shifts to Denver.
The Lakers haven't won a playoff series since 2004, when Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal led them to the NBA finals. O'Neal was traded a month after that, and it's been a struggle until this season. The blossoming of 20-year-old center Andrew Bynum gave the Lakers a different look early in the season, but Bynum hasn't played since injuring his left knee Jan. 13, and there's no timetable for his return.
The Lakers got a huge boost Feb. 1 when they acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis. They're 22-5 with the 7-foot Spaniard in their lineup, prompting Nuggets coach George Karl to call Gasol the second-most important addition to an NBA team this season, behind Boston's Kevin Garnett.
Defense isn't generally a priority for Denver, which ranked second in the NBA in scoring but next-to-last in points allowed. Usually, the freewheeling Nuggets win by outscoring their opponents, and they certainly have the weapons in Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, who rank third and fourth, respectively, in scoring in the NBA - right behind Bryant.
Our Point: You simply can't rely on the Denver Nuggets right now. First, their playoff record is terrible as they have been eliminated 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs each of the last four years. The Lakers were 3-0 against the Nuggets during the regular season and are 4-2 ATS their last 6 games against the Nuggets. The Lakers are 7-1 ATS at home against the Nuggets their last 8 games.
The Bottom Line: Come playoff time, you simply can't bet against Kobe and company in game 1 at Staples, especially the dominant way they closed out the regular season. They went 4-0 SU down the stretch, 3-1 ATS. The Nuggets closed out the season going 3-8 ATS overall, a bettor's nightmare. So, why would you bet on the Nuggets is game 1? It's certainly not their road record this season going 20-21 ATS, 17-24 overall. It's also not their defense, which allowed the most points in NBA this season.
You simply can't bet against the Lakeshow at home in game 1. We will talk in a few days, but right here, right now, is game 1 of the NBA playoffs at the Staples center in L.A. No way Denver comes in makes this one much of a game. 8 points is not too much to ask Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher to cover down the stretch. Look for a pretty high scoring game, but in the end, Denver's porous defense will give into the Lakers solid home court offense.
Lakers -8
Game 3: Philly at Detroit (Detroit -9.5)
Game Preview: The postseason is mostly about experience, and the Detroit Pistons have plenty of it. But the same can't be said for the Philadelphia 76ers. The second-seeded Pistons begin their quest of trying to reach their sixth straight Eastern Conference finals in Game One of the opening round series against the seventh-seeded Sixers on Sunday.
Over the past few years Detroit has been the cream of the crop in the conference, but has managed just one NBA championship (2003-04) to show for it. Billups along with mainstays Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace - all starters - are entering their fifth consecutive postseason as a unit. However, Detroit's recent struggles in the playoffs has come due to failed contributions by the bench, which showed during last season's conference final against the Cleveland Cavaliers. But team president Joe Dumars hopes to have fixed those problems with the improvement of Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson, and the drafting of rookies Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. Dumars also added center Theo Ratliff late in the season to provide depth in the middle.
Philadelphia coach Maurice Cheeks will place his club's success on the shoulders of the 1-2 punch of Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller. At 6-6, Iguodala is having his best season as a pro with 19.9 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Miller looks to build off his career high (17.1) scoring average. But Cheeks can't rely on Iguodala and Miller for the entire series. Philadelphia's inexperienced core of Louis Williams, rookie Thaddeus Young and Rodney Carney will have to provide some type of spark off the bench if the Sixers want to avoid an early exit.
Our Point: The Pistons are poised and ready for a eastern conference finals run once again this season. Luckily, they get a lot of help in the opening series with the much inexperienced Sixers. The playoff resume of the Pistons will stand out in this series, especially in game 1. Game 1 represents the opportunity to set in motion a statement, and the Pistons will come out firing all series at home in game 1. The Pistons ended the regular season hot going 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS. They can thank their bench with outstanding play from Stuckey and Mad Max to close out the season. They got their chops heading down the stretch when the Pistons were resting much of their starters. That's the difference with this Pistons club this playoffs, they will get valuable minutes and scoring from their bench in much needed times.
The Sixers unfortunately, do not have the bench to keep pace with the Pistons at home. While we think that the Sixers may possibly get 1 game in this series, this looks to be a rout on all sides. This matchup is too uneven with savvy veterans of the Pistons against the inexperienced Sixers. That will be the theme of this matchup the entire series. The Sixers didn't make their case any better by closing out the season losing 5 of 6 games, going 1-5 ATS during that stretch. The ultimate bettor's nightmare. Needless to say, it's not the way to close out the regular season, and we will not put our money on the Sixers until they can show improved play.
For these reasons, there is simply no other play here, but to take the Pistons -9.5 at home. This is not too much to ask of a team that has great momentum and a serious advantage in this matchup. The Pistons have been a bettor's paradise at home going 26-15 ATS, 34-7 SU. In other words, don't bet against the Pistons at home right now, period!
Pistons -9.5 is the play!
Game 4: Hawks at Celtics - (Pick = Celtics -15)
Game Preview: The Boston Celtics were the NBA's best team this year and their run towards a title starts Sunday when they host the Atlanta Hawks. The Celtics are 15-point favorites.
The Atlanta Hawks are in the playoffs for the first time in nine years. Their stay may very well be short. It wouldn't even be surprising if the last series postseason series to start is the first to end. Win one game? Maybe. The series? It'll be awfully tough.
The Celtics' 66-16 record was the best in the NBA. They had 29 more wins than the Hawks, the biggest difference between first-round opponents since Chicago was 30 games better than Miami and swept the Heat in a best-of-five series in 1996.
Now it's best-of-seven, a minor change that doesn't matter to a team with stars Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen and a deep bench.
Oddsmakers have made Boston -15 point spread favorites (NBA Odds) for todays game, the over/under has been set at 189 total points (Matchup). Our public betting information shows that 73% of bets for this game have been placed on Boston -15.
Garnett returned to practice Saturday after missing two days for personal reasons, reportedly the birth of his first child, but that won't help the Hawks. Boston's Big Three have played unselfishly and posted some of the most modest statistics of their careers. Rivers wouldn't mind if that continues, as long as the Celtics keep winning against a team they beat in all three meetings this season with margins of at least 10 points in each. Allen's 17.4 points per game were his fewest in nine seasons. Garnett averaged fewer than 20 points for the first time in 10 years. Pierce missed that average for the first time in eight.
The Hawks also have balanced scoring with six players scoring 10 or more points per game. But they'll be playing against the stingiest defense in the NBA. They'll walk into a raucous building jammed with Celtics fans starved for playoff success.
Boston hasn't won an NBA title since 1986 when the original Big Three of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish were in their prime. Since Bird retired, the Celtics have won just three playoff series in 15 years.
If the Celtics lose one of them, the intense Garnett is bound to get his teammates even more focused than they usually are. Just last year, eighth-seeded Golden State knocked off top-seeded Dallas in the opening round in the Western Conference. The Mavericks won 25 more games than the Warriors in the regular season. But that's the only time a No. 1 seed was beaten in the first round since it went to best-of-seven in 2003.
Garnett made it to the Western finals just once in his other 12 seasons, all with Minnesota. He said he didn't even watch last year's playoffs, the third straight season the Timberwolves didn't qualify. That happened when the Celtics traded for him last July 31 after struggling to a 24-58 record, the second worst for a franchise that has an NBA high 16 championships. And his presence doesn't bode well for Atlanta's playoff life.
Our Point: No time to bet against the Celtics now as this has been a mistake all season when the Celts are at home. They are 25-15 ATS, 35-6, simply put, a vegas nightmare for public bets. The public has always bet on the Celtics this year, and they have won. No reason to kick this habit in the playoffs, where the big 3 will be primed and ready to go. One thing you have to respect is this team's intensity and determination from start to finish in every game. While many other teams were cruising to the finish line, the Celts closed out going 10-2 ATS, 11 -1 SU. The Hawks on the other hand limped into the playoffs with a lot of luck winning 1 of their last 5 games, and going 1-4 ATS their last 5 games. Further, the Hawks were a terrible 17-24 ATS away from home, 12-29 SU.
The Bottom Line: It does not take a genius to figure that the Celtics should win whit game by more than 20 points. The 15 point spread for game 1 is entirely too light. The Hawks have proven to be a bettor's disappointment all season long, and they are the WORST team in the playoffs, period! In no way shape or form do they have a chance at winning this game, let alone even covering. We will bet against them until we see they have a bettor's chance in covering the spread. Until them, we go with the public bet on the Celtics -15 as they have not disappointed all season long!
Celtics -15
